What the North Korean Missile Launch Means

I will watch this wall;
This evil North Korean wall.

Yesterday, the North Korean government successfully launched a missile, whose purpose, as defined by the North Korean government, was to launch a communications satellite into space. Western governments, along side Japan and South Korea, have been increasingly vocal against their launch--for good reason. Most, if not all, intelligence agencies believe that this launch is really a cover for ballistic missile testing, making it a breach of international law and a potential security risk for South Korea, Japan, the United States, and even China.

A communications satellite... right...

Okay, Japan, the US, and South Korea are fairly obvious, 'but China?', you might ask, 'Aren't they allies with North Korea?' Well, technically yes. But they have a tense alliance with Pyongyang. Due to a lack of allies in a region surrounded by countries who are fearful of Chinese growth, a need for a buffer zone between them and western ideals, and a historic relationship that if abandoned, would make China look weak. Their relationship with Kim Jong-Un is not one out of love; it's one out of necessity.

For me, this development has one of three possible outcomes, all of which are negative for China.

1. North Korea continues missile development, gains enough confidence (for silly reasons, mind you), and instigates a war with South Korea. China decides to support their neighbor and goes to war with S.K. and the United States.

Result: Currently, China has a very robust missile defense shield that, if used, has the potential to inflict mass damage upon the United States' navy and her allies operating in the region. Effectively, their shield, coupled with the 100,000 or so mines they have in their possession, can keep America at bay for a long time. Further, the Chinese, in theory, should be able to decimate U.S. response capability. In numerous war-games, the team representing China has been able to establish air superiority by attacking U.S. runways and plane hangers, rendering them both useless.

In a study by the RAND corporation, the Chinese were able to decimate all of our aerial forces in the immediate area of Taiwan, with the US being able to scramble up a few F-22s. While they destroyed over 48 Chinese planes, they ultimately crashed after running out of fuel when Chinese fighters knocked out the KC-130 sent to re-fuel them.

Even more depressing is a study conducted by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Even if every missile the US would have at its disposal hit its target, the Chinese would still have enough assets to destroy US tankers, command and control, and intel gathering aircraft. More troubling is that every aircraft in Guam and Okinawa was destroyed within the first 30 minutes of the exercise.

Yikes.

Despite early victories, however, China is incapable of sustaining a long term war. Oil's the word. Importing 50% of its oil, with 75% of this coming in via the sea, China's greatest vulnerability is their massive energy consumption. China's surface fleet is not able to sufficiently operate outside the second island chain. Meaning, it will be unable to protect all the oil coming in. The U.S. will declare an embargo on China, sinking any ship that dares to try sail towards their waters.

Moreover, while China temporarily would establish control over the area extending to the second island chain, there will undoubtably be US submarine assets at work within these waters. Launching a guerrilla war on sea against Chinese forces, and, this is my guess, executing missile strikes against off and inshore oil installations belonging to China.

Without a sufficient amount of oil, their war effort will slowly grind to halt. And once China falls, North Korea will succumb too (I'll go into detail about invading North Korea down below). Leaving China with a shot up navy, shortage of oil, and an economy in shambles.

The first and second island chains

2. North Korea's confidence boosts, it goes to war, China stays out of the conflict.

This would be a fairly straight forward outcome, the North Koreans idiotically try something, and are pulverized. I haven't read too many studies about a US-Korean conflict, but I have heard that the South Koreans would be pushed back a few weeks until the US could mobilize a response. However, once we do, it will be a long grind to the Pyongyang.

In Defiant Failed State, a book by Bruce Bechtol, the author talks about how North Korean SOF would likely serve three purposes: 1. Recon 2. An insurgent movement within North Korea, mimicking the tactics used by insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan and 3. Wrecking havoc behind enemy lines.

The North Korean navy is mostly a costal, but has the potential to be deadly. In 2010, a N.K. submarine successfully sank a South Korean ship without being detected. In 2002, two North Korean ships engaged their South Korean counterparts in a small naval skirmish. Inflicting 4 casualties, with a South Korean ship sinking on route to port. Now, while it's ability to match the ferociousness of the U.S. Navy is questionable, this doesn't necessarily negate the fact that it has the potential of being deadly.

Moreover, since we're talking about potential uses of the DPRK Navy, the North Koreans could always insert SOF into South Korea via submarine. This has merit, considering that the North Koreans delivered a 25 man force in 1996 to South Korea. Sure, it didn't work. But South Korea wasn't busy at the time fighting off an invasion.

Furthermore, and take this next bit with a grain of salt, since I found this on wikipedia page whose source was a book from 1988, they could deliver up to 7,000 SOF to each of ROK coastlines through amphibious craft. However, presuming that their surface craft, I doubt the efficiency of these boats to evade detection.

In terms of Air Force, there is very little the North Koreans could pull together. Most of their frames are upwards to 50 years old, hardly a match for the F-35 the military is planning to phase. I doubt that they will be able to do much damage. But maybe another reader could correct me. I think one of their better assets is the AN-2; as a small biplane, the aircraft can carry about 10 SOF troops below radar into South Korea. Further augmenting the already decent capability of North Korea's SOF

Their Army, put on the defensive, would likely dig in and fight to the death. According to most estimates, the DPRK Ground Force has something along the lines of 1.1 million men--all of whom are are more than willing to die for Dear Fat-Boy Leader Kim Jong-Un. Their greatest asset until US air assets arrive is their artillery forces, which are dug in and within range of Seoul. However, after US sorties begin punning their positions, I doubt much will left. Making the trek to Pyongyang that much easier.

Of course, making that air attack on North Korean positions is easier said than done. N.K. has an extremely thick shell of anti aircraft missiles, protecting the various military units it will rely on for strategic attack. Though highly susceptible to electronic warfare, it would inflict heavy damage to NATO air forces before destroyed.

The greatest asset to North Korea is their vast and seemingly never ending supply of missiles. Estimates put North Korea's ballistic missile force at upwards to 1000 units; some of these can even reach as far as Japan and Guam. They have even more tactical missiles, which could present themselves as deadly to naval forces operating off the coast of Korea.

Transporter Erector Launcher, the mobile platform by which Korea launches most of its missiles

3. North Korea's confidence is boosted, but it doesn't go to war

This is the most likely outcome. Pyongyang is just going to get more boisterous and provocative with their new capability, giving the US all the more reason to put forces in the Pacific. This, of course, undermines China's military capability, thus eroding the weight they might have on negotiating tables. 

The strategy of most U.S. enemies is not to be able to obtain full military victory, but be able to pay the price tag. The price tag is a term I use to describe the amount of lives the U.S. is willing to during a conflict. If an enemy can reach or go beyond this price tag, then they have substantially more weight on the negotiating tables against America.

In any event, this is interesting stuff. Oh, btw, most posts won't be this long. I just got bored during Algebra today because we weren't doing anything, and thus had some free time.

- Tom

For further reading about North Korea and China, I recommend the follow PDFs and Books

1. Defiant Failed State by Bruce Bechtol 
2. The Great Wall at Sea by Bernard Cole; it goes throughly into detail about the Chinese Navy, their strategy, weaknesses, and strengths 
3. http://www.rand.org/news/press/2011/02/21/index1.html; Great study by RAND that focusses on a war between China and the US over the Taiwan Straits
4. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG915.pdf; Great study by RAND that reviews Chinese Air Force doctrine